The sixth race on the Formula 1 Calendar takes place in Monte Carlo, Monaco. widely touted as the most famous and glamorous of all the F1 races, it is the sport’s flagship event. The Circuit De Monaco track snakes around the narrow streets of the principality and features many inclines and declines, the fastest and slowest hairpins in F1, and a tunnel to boot. Because of the design of the circuit it is generally considered to be more a test of the driver’s skill, and less about how powerful the cars are.

Although the Monaco Circuit is the slowest F1 circuit it is undoubtedly the one that packs the most variety and excitement. It is considered the most dangerous to drive; the slippery and uneven track and very narrow walls meaning that there is absolutely no margin for error. The teams will prepare a high downforce aero package and the tactic will be to drive conservatively whilst attempting to economise the tyre compound as much as possible. This track temperature chart for the Monaco Circuit gives you some great data on the likely temperature of the track surface and therefore some idea what the level of traction and rate of tyre wear might be.

As far as records are concerned, the current holder for the most Formula One wins in Monaco is Ayrton Senna with 6 victories, whilst the most successful team so far has been Maclaren with 15. However, the most prestigious racing event could celebrate its 70^th anniversary by writing another entry into the record books – That of six different winners in the first 6 rounds of a Formula 1 Season – which would make this the most open and competitive start to any F1 season in history.

 The changeable weather forecast for Monaco is a factor that will only add to the uncertainty of this race. As our high resolution precipitation chart for Monaco Circuit demonstrates, there is a very high probability of rain on Saturday, and that will most likely continue through Sunday as well. This means that the timing of when to be out on the track during Saturday’s qualifiers will be a crucial factor. Additionally our high resolution surface temperature chart shows that the ambient temperature around the Monaco Circuit will be around 24C for the race. This will be a cooler race than the Spanish GP a fortnight ago at the Catalunya Circuit, and this will certainly impact both the handling of the cars and the tyre degradation.

 The conditions are set for a highly open and unpredictable Formula 1 race. It’s certainly possible that a less well known driver could win this year’s Monaco Grand Prix. It only adds to the excitement!

The next circuit on the F1 calendar is Barcelona’s Circuit de Catalunya, making it the 22^nd time the city will have hosted the GP. The teams should know this circuit inside out as they have been racing there since 1991 and have also used the venue for tests. However, this is still a hugely challenging circuit with its own idiosyncrasies which have been known to throw drivers in the past.

The track surface tends to be quite rough and will take its toll on the tyres. Those drivers who have been struggling with tyre wear this season – in particular Michael Schumacher, who has the highest tyre usage so far – may find this a challenging track. Despite having won the race 6 times in previous years, Schumacher of Mercedes struggled this season and has publicly criticised Pirelli for producing what he deems to be mediocre tyres.

The upside for Mercedes is that the relatively temperate conditions in Spain (by comparison to Bahrain) will perhaps serve Schumacher’s team-mate Nico Roseberg in good stead, seeing as he flourished in the cooler temperatures of Shanghai earlier this year to win from pole. The same is likely to ring true for Team Maclaren who had seen their consistent form over the first three races blighted by the unforgiving Bahraini heat in the fourth.

The Catalunya circuit is also famous for its unpredictable winds. Their strength and direction is hugely changeable, and given the emphasis on aerodynamics in modern racing, finding an optimal setup for this will prove difficult. The aerodynamic drag generated by these winds means that drivers tend to understeer or oversteer as the conditions change, which makes for some unexpected performances.

The abrasive track and erratic winds, combined with the enigmatic Pirelli tyres should make for a very watchable Spanish Grand Prix. Keep your eye on the ever changing forecast for Barcelona in the run up to the race weekend here. Just don’t ask me to pick the winner.

The Bahrain Grand Prix will be careering onto our screens this weekend, broadcast live from the International Circuit in Sakhir. The controversial race has been green lit despite mounting pressure on FIA to abandon the event due to civil unrest. The ruling Royal family have been accused of human rights atrocities, with violent demonstrations regularly erupting in the Gulf State. Despite the political turmoil, F1 boss Bernie Eccleston stated earlier this week that he saw no reason to cancel the race for the second consecutive year.

 “I’ve never heard anything that would lead me to believe it isn’t [safe]. People who live there and work there on a daily basis tell me everything’s normal… They’re not protesting about F1. If we didn’t go, whatever problems there are… would they stop Monday morning? The answer is no.”

Likewise, Sheikh Abdul-Aziz bin Mubarak, of the Bahrain Royal family said in a radio interview that F1 should not become politicized.

“Sport and music do not interfere with religion or politics… There are pockets of violence, but these are controlled in a better way than last year. We’ve made great strides.”

The Bahrain International Circuit itself is 5.4 km in length, and consists of a gruelling 57 laps. With the cloudless skies and blistering sun, heat management will be a priority both for the drivers and for the cars. As the track temperature is expected to exceed 45C, the tyre compounds used will be medium and soft. This means that the performance and grip of the tyre will be high but the durability very low. This will cause a large amount of rubber debris - known as marbles – to accumulate on the sidelines, which not only make it harder to control the vehicle but also effectively narrow the width of the track.

Apart from the heat, another unique feature of the Bahrain track is the desert wind which whips up clouds of sand into the air. These make the track more difficult to negotiate, forcing the drivers to work harder for their grid positions and points.

All in all, we are in for a very exciting spectacle. But with the Force India already team involved in a fire-bomb incident yesterday, let’s hope that the race is remembered for the quality of the driving, and not the demonstrations.

John Smith’s Grand National – held annually at Aintree Racecourse – is one of the most prestigious horseracing events on the calendar and certainly the worlds greatest steeplechase. However, with 40 horses competing, picking a winner can be a daunting task. That is why I have listed the most important criteria to check when picking a horse.

JUMPING

As the race is primarily about jumping, a strong fencer will be a likely candidate for winning it. There are 30 obstacles over the two courses so checking the form guides to determine how well the horse has jumped in previous races is a good idea.

 HANDICAP

The second factor to take into account is the weight carried by the horse. Unlike the Cheltenham Gold Cup where the horses are handicapped evenly, in the Grand National more weight is given to the better horses. As a general rule of thumb, those carrying the largest amount of weight are going to struggle, although winners have emerged from the top weight bracket in the past, (2010 winner Don’t Push It took victory with 11st 5lbs.)

ENDURANCE

Stamina is another property to look for in the competitors. Avoid those horses which have a good track record over short distances (2 miles). They won’t be able to recreate the same level of performance over twice the distance. Those horses that are stronger over longer distances will be the likeliest candidates, as stamina will always beat speed in a four and a half mile race.

CONDITIONS

The last and possibly most crucial factor however is the prevailing going. The forecast is not great for the Grand National, with patches of rain predicted. This will make the ground ride soft. Picking a horse that has excelled under those conditions is recommended. Check our Aintree Racecourse weather forecast to get a picture of what the conditions are expected to be, with weather probability charts available under the ‘risk’ section.

Good luck to you all!

FORMULA 1 BETTING

Are you betting on the Formula One Grand Prix? Now that the 2012 F1 Season is officially underway, it is time to check the odds and start gaming. With Jenson Button dominating in Australia, can he continue his fine form in Malaysia? Sebastian Vettel remains the bookies favourite to win the Championship at 2/1, with Button second favourite at 5/2. However, for the Sepang race, the best odds (courtesy of http://www.oddschecker.com) see  Button, Hamilton and Vettel all tied at 11/4.

 F1 WEATHER FORECASTS

One thing you must consider when you are betting is the forecast. The various weather conditions can dramatically alter the outcome of a race. This is why we provide free, super-accurate forecasts for all Formula 1 Grand Prix Circuits. Not only do we provide a 14-day Formula 1 racing forecast, but we also have reams of additional weather information displayed in graphs, charts, maps and tables for your convenience. Check the 14-day weather forecast for the Malaysian GP.

TRACK TEMPERATURE CHARTS

For betting, it is crucial that you check our  track temperature charts, as we are just about the only site that supplies these, let alone for free. This is critical data that WILL influence the course of a race, you would be mad not to check it. Here’s the Track Temp Chart for Sepang International Circuit in Malaysia.

RISK/ PROBABILITY CHARTS

We also provide weather probability charts which tell you the exact probability or “risk” of a given weather event occurring, such as precipitation, winds, thunder, dew, and cloud. It will even tell you what the light quality and visibility levels will be on any given day. Have a look at the Probability Chart for Sepang International Circuit in Malaysia.

This is the most comprehensive information available for free for all the Formula One Grand Prix Circuits and this is why we are the best in the business.

GREAT RESOURCE FOR F1 WEATHER

MyWeather2.com  is an absolutely indispensable resource for Formula 1 weather forecasts. Regardless of whether you’re betting or just a keen racing fan, you must bookmark us!

http://www.myweather2.com

We hope you enjoy the Championship, and best of luck!

The new Formula One season is fast approaching and I for one am certainly geared up for it. Puns aside, this is a huge event in the sporting calendar, with the championship kicking off this Sunday (18th March) in Melbourne’s Albert Park. A select few Formula 1 fanatics will be lucky enough to witness the races first hand; to smell the burning of rubber on tarmac and feel the roaring bass of the V8 engines. The rest of us will have to watch the televised coverage which has been split between Sky Sports and BBC (in the UK) in a new and controversial licensing agreement.

The calendar itself is the longest and most congested yet of any season, packing in a staggering 20 races. Two new circuits have appeared on the itinerary; the purpose-built Circuit of the Americas in Austin, Texas, and the Bahrain International Circuit – whilst the Turkish GP has been omitted from the calendar. The odds-on favourite to win, is of course the irrepressible Sebastian Vettel who was last season’s runaway champion. His remarkable record saw him finish poll position in 11 out of 19 races and come second a further 5, amassing 392 points in the process.

Vettel’s team-mate of Red Bull Renault is Australian driver Mark Webber, who finished a distant third in the 2011 season, 134 points behind his German counterpart. He represents the most realistic challenger to Vettel’s title bid (having come first in the inaugural practice session) alongside the two Brits Lewis Hamilton and Jenson Button as well as the Spanish outsider Fernando Alonso.

F1 BETTING

If you like to bet on F1, or simply want to know what the racing conditions will be for any of the GP circuits, then check out our F1 racing forecasts. For the hardcore racing geeks amongst you, we even provide track temperature charts and weather probability stats for each race. This invaluable resource for Formula One betting will accurately predict the exact conditions for races allowing you to make the most informed decision possible, and win big every time.

How Different Types of Weather Affect Your Construction Project

In my previous post I wrote about the impact of weather on construction, focusing particularly on the ‘seasonal’ and ‘unseasonal’ effects. In this post I will discuss the different types of weather that can negatively impact on a project, and outline the risks associated with each one. To keep things simple, I have split the weather into five categories: Hot and dry, cold, wet, stormy, and windy.

HOT AND DRY

Hot and dry weather can cause major damage to a building project, impacting on almost all aspects of the site. Water evaporating too quickly from concrete can cause it to harden prematurely, compromising its integrity. Likewise, the heat can cause mortar to set too fast, lessening its bond to the bricks. Furthermore certain materials will have a significant coefficient of thermal expansion and so will expand and move more in the heat. This is something that needs to be accounted for when working in a hot climate. Lastly, worker efficiency decreases in hot weather. The level of productivity goes down as the workers become fatigued and dehydrated.

COLD

Cold conditions will have the opposite effect to hot and dry weather but can be just as problematic to onsite operations. Ice crystals will slow the curing of concrete (which can affect its strength) and can cause spalling and ruin the finish. Equally if the foundations are laid above the frost line then the cycles of freezing and thawing can cause large scale movements (heaving)

STORMY

Thunderstorms are particularly dangerous to workers on a site. They can occur very suddenly and without warning. Construction sites often have cranes which tower above other structures and so attract lightning. What’s more there can be a lot of conductive materials on building sites (such as steel) as well as materials prone to shattering (such as glass and wood). For these reasons work should not be carried out if a storm is probable.

WINDY

Gale or storm force winds can have a very destructive effect on building sites. Tall flat walls and roofs (particularly shingle and single-ply) are most prone to wind damage as they receive the full force of it. Winds can also increase moisture infiltration into the building. If there is a strong but dry wind then it will facilitate the evaporation of moisture and so reduce the setting time for concrete and mortar, making them less resilient.

SOLUTION

From the above it is clear that adverse weather conditions can generate significant costs to the construction industry. Thousands of pounds can be lost in a single day due to unforeseen weather events. However, it is possible to protect your site from weather-related damage by subscribing to our site-specific forecasts. We will anticipate any weather events which could be problematic to your operation with our weather alerts system delivered to your phone via SMS. For more information on our building and construction weather-service visit: http://www.myweather2.com/business/weather-decisions/construction.aspx

As anybody in the business will know, construction is heavily affected by the weather. Strict health and safety regulations have to be met on building sites and if weather conditions reach a critical level then operations necessarily cease. “weather can affect many aspects of a construction project, from site work to worker discomfort” explains industry expert J. Crissinger. Indeed, there are many different weather events that could impact on a construction project, including hot and dry weather, cold weather, heavy downpours, high winds and thunderstorms. I will be examining the effects of each of these in more detail in the next instalment of the Weather2 blog.

However, in this article I will be discussing how weather, more broadly speaking, affects the construction industry and how you can mitigate its impact. A study published in Real Estate Economics identifies two distinct ways in which weather impacts on projects. One is the ‘seasonal effect’, with activity generally slowing down during the colder months. Contractors attempt to make allowances for this when they plan a project, although the severity and duration of the bad weather is impossible to predict. This is because long range forecasting (longer than a several days in advance) is notoriously inaccurate, a phenomenon explained by the chaos theory.

The second influence is the ‘unseasonable effect’, which is even harder to anticipate and make allowances for. Unseasonably cold weather can result in downtime during a contract period, which is bad news for contractors and developers. During this period of inactivity the project is losing money and wasting resources. Even worse, a delay to the completion of the project threatens to throw the firm’s reputation into jeopardy. According to Coulson and Richard: “…Housing starts and completions have important dynamic components in their regeneration processes. Thus any shock (like a weather shock) will have on this account, substantial, long-lasting effects.”

However, the good news is that in some circumstances a spell of unseasonable weather can have positive effects on the project. Coulson says “…warm weather (say) in cold months in cold regions, does have a significant favourable impact on housing starts.” The key, of course, is to anticipate the temperate weather early enough to fully utilize it. This is why a forecasting service specifically designed to meet the needs of the building and construction industry is such a key tool for anybody tasked with project managing and planning for periods of downtime. Here is a link for more information on this service: http://www.myweather2.com/business/weather-decisions/construction.aspx

Remember, weather cannot be controlled. However, it can be prepared for and made the most of. Crissinger concludes “Proper preparation, adjustment, and reaction to local weather will influence the success of a construction project and the completed building.”

FurtherReading:

Crissinger, Joseph L, ‘Design and Construction VS. Weather’, 2005

Coulson and Richard, the dynamic Impact of Unseasonable Weather on Construction Activity, Real estate Economics, ’96.

Most places have strong winds at some time or other and sometimes these can be exceptional causing considerable damage and threatening lives. Also, they rarely come on their own but are often accompanied by heavy rain or snow to make things worse. At sea the wind can drive mountainous waves which are awesome if observed from safety but terrifying if you are caught up in them. So what is it that drives the wind? I’ll start with the simple explanation.

The simplest way to think about this is to imagine a ball rolling down a hill. The steeper the downward slope, the quicker the ball will roll. In the case of winds the slope is not the ground but the difference between a high pressure area and a low pressure area. The bigger the difference between the high and low over a given distance, the faster the wind will flow. Of course there are additional factors to consider but that’s the basics.

From that description you might expect the wind to flow directly from the high to the low areas, but there are other complicating factors involved. The earth is spinning underneath the wind, the highs and lows themselves are moving, there is greater friction near the surface than at higher levels and air accelerates when moving out of a high into a low. These all come together to make the wind blow more or less in the direction of the valley, as opposed to from high to low – although there is a significant component towards the low and out of the high.

We would have to get a lot more technical to explain the balances of these different forces to show how they all combine to give us the wind direction, but the actual speed is proportional to the steepness of the gradient between the high and the low. In 1857 a Dutch Meteorologist confirmed a prior observation which can be expressed as follows: “In the Northern Hemisphere, if a person stands with his back to the wind, the low pressure area will be on his left” The opposite is true in the Southern Hemisphere.

Of course the next question is why are there high and low pressures to begin with? In short the answer is that temperature differences between air masses have a significant impact on just how much air is flowing into and out of an area and the density of that air, and these differences create differentials in pressure. This leads on naturally to a long succession of other questions all of which have answers far more detailed than is appropriate for a Blog.

However, as a taster, the next obvious question is: What creates the temperature differences? Well, think about the Sun and radiation hitting the Earth’s surface at different angles and intensities due to the Earth/Sun position at varying times of year and the tilt of the Axis. Also think about the fact that depending on what’s covering the Earth’s surface – Ice, Snow,Forest, water etc – the amount of energy absorbed from the sun will vary. These questions can’t stop there though as then we need to consider the orbit of Earth around the Sun and the fact that it is not circular but elliptical and also how the oceans’ currents transfer heat around the planet… However, that’s enough here though as we are digressing too far away from the original question.

Few businesses actually realise how instrumental the weather is in shaping consumer spending habits. The typically unreliable British weather is the second largest influence on the public’s spending patterns after the state of the economy, according to the British Retail Consortium. This relationship is a complex web of interlinked variables which large retailers have only recently started to analyse and exploit to their advantage.

Supermarkets such as Tesco use sophisticated software to plot sales information for individual products against past weather data for each day of the year, spanning back several years. By cross-referencing these two data sets they can identify weather-determined patterns and trends in customer spending. For example, they know with certainty that a 4°C rise over a certain temperature will trigger a 42% increase in burger sales, whilst a particularly cold Monday will bring about a greater demand for green vegetables. To be able to predict with such accuracy one’s stock requirements for the future is the holy grail of retailing. Tesco states that their use of past weather data for managing stock has saved them £6 million per year.

Whilst Tesco is one of the retail giants, the same principles will apply to businesses of all sizes. Streamlining your operation so that the supply of your goods perfectly meets the demands of the market will result in the maximisation of profits. By using Weather2’s Business Intelligence Service (which includes Hindcast and Probability data) you can data-mine this valuable reserve of information to drastically increase the turnover for your business. With weather-influenced sales constituting 4.5% of total sales in the UK* failing to understand and anticipate demand “could be the difference between returning a profit and making a loss” explains one industry insider. With even the most subtle meteorological changes having a profound effect on the collective psyche of the consumer, that age-old adage applies to your business: “failing to prepare is preparing to fail”.

*Source: Ian michaelwaite, Netweather.tv, 2011

 For more information on our range of business services: http://www.myweather2.com/business/